Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
“We are seeing a little better condition for more home sales … with more inventory and the lock-in effect steadily disappearing—because life-changing events are making more people list their property to move on to their next home. Next year should be better with lower mortgage rates, and that will qualify more buyers. We are expecting home sales to increase by about 14% nationwide in 2026.”
- Equity remains, but home prices moderate: “Home price growth will be minimal—roughly 2% to 3%—about the same as overall consumer price inflation. Generally, wage growth will be above that. So, it’s a year where people’s income begins to rise a little faster than consumer price inflation and home prices—and this is a welcoming development. We want people to have more purchasing power. Home prices are in no danger of any major decline, and even a 3% gain will bring smiles to many homeowners.”
- Less pressure on buyers: “Inventory levels are about 20% above one year ago, so there are more choices for consumers. We’re not back to pre-COVID inventory yet, which I would consider normal, so we’re still in a slight housing shortage condition. But consumers do not have to rush decisions the way they did before—there are more choices out there and less prevalence of multiple offers.”
- The American dream is still alive: “The desire for homeownership has not fallen. Many renters say that if the conditions are right, they would like to become homeowners. The past couple of years have been frustrating because of elevated mortgage rates, but things will be much better to achieve that American dream of ownership in 2026—with more inventory choices and mortgage rates falling.”